China Reaction: Trump Wins

Trump Sweeps. Electoral Vote. Popular Vote. House. Senate. Americans delivered an unequivocal rejection of the current government, and gave an overwhelming mandate to an incoming President Trump.

For weeks, I have been asking my Chinese colleagues, friends and associates here in Hong Kong and across Mainland China who they thought would win. The response was universal: Trump. When probed, they revealed that it wasn't simply a matter of name recognition. Across dozens of conversations, they not only believed Trump would win, but they hoped he would.

Why? I repeatedly heard that "Trump does not like war". Across China, my contacts believed that a Trump administration would seek out diplomatic solutions to conflicts around the world - not just Taiwan. The same hysterical media that insisted the 47th President is a racist, a rapist, a fascist, and a Nazi also tells Americans that China is dangerous and primed to invade Taiwan. My friends in China don’t believe this. My friends in Taiwan don’t believe this. Everyone is looking for a partner in the U.S. who can help lower the temperature.

In China, regular people understand that mutual prosperity requires a strong US-China relationship. In the US, Americans have a few years of trial-and-error to come before everyday people realize how integral China is to US prosperity.

But what about the trade relationship? Trump has threatened nothing less than a trade war. Somewhat naively, managers and regular people in China and Hong Kong aren't worried. I was repeatedly told "These taxes and tariffs don't affect regular people". Meanwhile, in the elite, there is a much more worried reaction. Almost everyone has significant business interests relying on US - China trade. They are scared. A few weeks ago, I attended an event in China where senior Mexican diplomats attempted to whoo Chinese executives to open plants in Mexico. The tone of the Chinese side was of genuine concern. They understand that a trade war could happen, and many are frantically exploring alternatives. Americans too are worried. Many of my American friends here have invested immense sums in Chinese supply chains.

Everyone has already investigated Vietnam, Indonesia, and other alternatives. They simply won't work. Until you witness Chinese manufacturing first hand, you can't understand it. It's the best the world has ever seen. Mexico is the only option on the radars of senior Chinese and American business leaders looking to solve this problem.

It's not all negative. Many of my conversations in China are genuinely optimistic towards a second Trump Presidency. There is a real chance to reset the US - China relationship in a fair way. In a way that limits dangerous competition and incentivizes long term win-win cooperation. Everyone recognizes that at various points in the relationship, both sides have taken advantage of the other. Trump is a strong, independently-willed leader who provides a unique hope that we can all get off the scary current path of escalation and onto a pragmatic one that recognizes both countries as amazing superpowers, and endeavorers to change the world through US - China cooperation.

For now, the mood is optimistic.